Bank of Canada
2.25%
Policy Rate
Latest available: September 8, 2026
Mortgage Rate Watch
What's happening with mortgage rates in Canada?
Mortgage rates do not all move for the same reason. Variable rates are influenced more directly by the Bank of Canada, while fixed rates tend to respond more to the bond market. This page gives you a simple look at what I'm watching and what it may mean for borrowers.
What I'm Watching updated September 4, 2026
At a Glance
The market at a glance.
These figures help explain the direction of mortgage pricing, but they are not mortgage rates themselves. Individual lenders can price differently.
Bond Market
3.41%
5-Year Canada Bond Yield
Latest available: September 3, 2026
Fixed Rates
Upward pressure
Current Pressure
Based on recent 5-year bond movement
Next Decision
Oct. 28
Bank of Canada
October 28, 2026
Most major-bank prime rates are currently 4.45%, although some lenders use a different mortgage prime rate. TD, for example, has its own TD Mortgage Prime Rate. Prime is commonly used as the reference rate for variable mortgages and home equity lines of credit. Latest available: September 9, 2026.
Mortgage Rate Watch
What I'm watching.
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2. That means there was no new Bank-of-Canada-driven change to variable mortgage pricing at this decision.
Fixed rates are a little different. The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield moved from 3.22% on August 25 to 3.42% on September 2, before easing slightly to 3.41% on September 3. That recent move can put upward pressure on fixed mortgage pricing.
That does not mean every lender will raise rates, or that fixed mortgage rates move point-for-point with bond yields. Lenders have different funding costs, margins, promotions, and pricing strategies. I use the bond market as an indicator of pressure, not as a prediction.
Why Rates Move
Fixed and variable rates respond to different things.
Fixed mortgage rates
Fixed mortgage rates are influenced by the cost of longer-term funding. The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield is one of the indicators commonly watched when looking at 5-year fixed mortgage pricing.
When bond yields rise, lenders may face pressure to increase fixed rates. When yields fall, lenders may have more room to reduce them. The relationship is important, but it is not one-to-one.
Variable mortgage rates
Variable and adjustable mortgage rates are tied more directly to a lender's prime rate. Prime generally moves when the Bank of Canada changes its policy rate.
If the Bank raises or lowers its policy rate, the impact on variable-rate borrowing is usually much more direct than it is for fixed mortgage rates.
Are mortgage rates going up or down?
There is rarely one answer that applies to every mortgage rate.
Fixed and variable rates can move differently because they respond to different parts of the market.
Right now, the Bank of Canada policy rate is 2.25%, while the 5-year bond yield is 3.41%. In plain English, the latest Bank of Canada decision left variable-rate pricing unchanged, while the recent bond-market move is still creating some upward pressure on fixed-rate pricing.
That can change quickly, which is why I would rather explain the direction and the reason behind it than try to predict exactly where mortgage rates will be next.
About Mortgage Rates
Why don't I list today's mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates can vary depending on the lender, term, down payment, amortization, whether the mortgage is insured or conventional, the property type, and the purpose of the mortgage. A rate that applies to one borrower may not apply to another.
Mortgage Rate Watch is designed to show what is influencing mortgage pricing right now. If you want to know what rates may apply to you, I can compare the options based on your down payment, property type, mortgage amount, and whether you're buying, renewing, or refinancing.
What Does This Mean for Me?
The rate matters. Your situation matters more.
The right next step depends on what you are trying to do. Start with the part of the mortgage journey that fits your situation.
Buying
Buying a Home
See how changing rates may affect your payment, qualification, and mortgage options when you are preparing to buy.
Explore buying a homeRenewing
Mortgage Renewal
See what may be worth comparing before you accept your lender's renewal offer.
Explore renewal optionsRefinancing
Mortgage Refinance
See how rates fit alongside penalties, equity, cash flow, and your reasons for refinancing.
Explore refinancingMortgage Choice
Fixed vs. Variable
Compare how fixed and variable mortgages may affect stability, flexibility, and risk.
Compare fixed and variableWondering what rates actually apply to your mortgage?
The advertised rate is only part of the picture. Your down payment, mortgage type, property, amortization, lender, and overall application can all affect the options available.