Bank of Canada
2.50%
Policy Rate
Latest available: October 29, 2026
Mortgage Rate Watch
What's moving mortgage ratesand why does it matter?
Variable and fixed mortgage rates do not move for the same reasons. This is a plain-English look at the Bank of Canada, bond yields and the market pressure I'm watching for Canadian borrowers.
See the Rate SnapshotUpdated October 30, 2026
Market Snapshot
BoC policy rate
2.50%
5-year bond
3.60%
Prime rate
4.70%
Fixed pressure
Upward pressure
Next Bank of Canada decision
December 9, 2026
Market indicators are not mortgage offers. Individual lender pricing varies.
At a Glance
The market at a glance.
These figures help explain the direction of mortgage pricing, but they are not mortgage rates themselves. Individual lenders can price differently.
Bond Market
3.60%
5-Year Canada Bond Yield
Latest available: October 7, 2026 (last stored fallback)
Fixed Rates
Upward pressure
Current Pressure
Bond yields influence fixed pricing separately from policy decisions
Next Decision
Dec. 9
Bank of Canada
December 9, 2026
Major-bank prime rates rose to 4.70% following the October 28 policy-rate increase. BMO confirmed 4.70% effective October 29, 2026. Some mortgage products use a different prime reference rate. The Bank of Canada prime series is published weekly and may lag a new rate announcement. Displayed observation: October 29, 2026.
Mortgage Rate Watch
What I'm watching right now.
The October 28 policy-rate increase matters for variable borrowing. The bond market remains the separate indicator to watch for fixed-rate pressure.
October 30, 2026
Bank of Canada raises its policy rate.
On October 28, 2026, the Bank of Canada increased its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points, from 2.25% to 2.50%. It was the first increase since 2023. The latest available policy-rate observation is 2.50%, dated October 29, 2026.
The Bank said inflation has been higher and more persistent than expected, partly because of energy prices and import costs, while economic growth has been more resilient. Its October Monetary Policy Report projects inflation to remain above 3% through much of 2027. Further increases are possible, but they are not certain.
For variable-rate borrowers, major-bank prime rates moved from 4.45% to 4.70%, effective October 29. Adjustable-rate payments commonly increase when prime rises; variable-rate mortgages with fixed payments may instead put more of each payment toward interest. Your mortgage contract determines the effect.
Fixed rates are influenced more by bond yields and lender funding costs than by a single Bank of Canada announcement. The latest available 5-year Government of Canada bond yield is 3.60%, dated October 7, 2026 (last stored fallback). Higher yields can put upward pressure on fixed pricing, but lenders do not all change rates together.
The next scheduled Bank of Canada rate decision is December 9, 2026. I'll be watching inflation, energy costs, trade uncertainty and bond yields rather than assuming the next move is already decided.
Why Rates Move
Fixed and variable rates respond to different things.
This is why you can sometimes see fixed mortgage rates move even when the Bank of Canada has not changed its policy rate.
Fixed mortgage rates
Fixed mortgage rates are influenced by the cost of longer-term funding. The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield is one of the indicators commonly watched when looking at 5-year fixed mortgage pricing.
When bond yields rise, lenders may face pressure to increase fixed rates. When yields fall, lenders may have more room to reduce them. The relationship is important, but it is not one-to-one.
Right now
The latest 5-year benchmark yield is 3.60%. Bond yields can change independently of the Bank of Canada policy rate.
Variable mortgage rates
Variable and adjustable mortgage rates are tied more directly to a lender's prime rate. Prime generally moves when the Bank of Canada changes its policy rate.
If the Bank raises or lowers its policy rate, the impact on variable-rate borrowing is usually much more direct than it is for fixed mortgage rates.
Right now
Following the October 28 increase, the Bank of Canada policy rate is 2.50%, with the next scheduled decision on December 9, 2026.
So, are mortgage rates going up or down?
Right now, the better answer is: it depends which mortgage rates you mean.
The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points on October 28, to 2.50%. Major-bank prime rates subsequently increased to 4.70%, affecting variable and adjustable mortgage borrowing according to the lender and mortgage terms.
Meanwhile, the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield is 3.60%. Fixed mortgage rates respond primarily to bond markets, funding costs and lender pricing decisions, so they need not move in lockstep with prime.
In other words, this announcement directly changes the outlook for variable-rate borrowing, but it does not automatically mean a matching change to every fixed-rate mortgage offer. Future Bank of Canada decisions are not guaranteed.
Markets can change quickly. Mortgage Rate Watch is meant to help you understand the direction and the reason behind it, not predict the exact rate a lender will offer tomorrow.
About Mortgage Rates
Why don't I list today's mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates can vary depending on the lender, term, down payment, amortization, whether the mortgage is insured or conventional, the property type, and the purpose of the mortgage. A rate that applies to one borrower may not apply to another.
Mortgage Rate Watch is designed to show what is influencing mortgage pricing right now. If you want to know what rates may apply to you, I can compare the options based on your down payment, property type, mortgage amount, and whether you're buying, renewing, or refinancing.
What Does This Mean for Me?
The rate matters. Your situation matters more.
The right next step depends on what you are trying to do. Start with the part of the mortgage journey that fits your situation.
Buying
Buying a Home
See how changing rates may affect your payment, qualification, and mortgage options when you are preparing to buy.
Explore buying a homeRenewing
Mortgage Renewal
See what may be worth comparing before you accept your lender's renewal offer.
Explore renewal optionsRefinancing
Mortgage Refinance
See how rates fit alongside penalties, equity, cash flow, and your reasons for refinancing.
Explore refinancingMortgage Choice
Fixed vs. Variable
Compare how fixed and variable mortgages may affect stability, flexibility, and risk.
Compare fixed and variableWondering what rates actually apply to your mortgage?
The advertised rate is only part of the picture. Your down payment, mortgage type, property, amortization, lender, and overall application can all affect the options available.